The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is looking ahead to autumn following a wetter end to a hot and dry summer in the Macleay Valley.
With only a few days remaining, the summer of 2019/2020 is shaping up to be among the three warmest on record for Australia. And despite good rainfall for some areas in February, summer rainfall was still below average for the country as a whole.
Kempsey experienced a wetter end to the month of February, with 310.8mm of rainfall recorded at the Kempsey Airport gauge as of February 27.
Kempsey has already experienced close to its total rainfall amount for 2019 in the first two months of this year. A total of 368.8mm was recorded at the Kempsey Airport last year.
The rainfall outlook released by BOM for Kempsey during March indicates there is an 80 per cent chance of 50mm and a 98 per cent chance of at least 15mm of rain.
While for autumn, Kempsey has a 91 per cent chance of 150mm and a 98 per cent chance of at least 100mm.
BOM climatologist Dr Andrew Watkins said the neutral weather patterns are not expected to change during the next three months.
"The low likelihood of widespread above or below average rainfall is largely due to our significant climate drivers - such as ENSO or the IOD - being neutral. We're not expecting these neutral patterns to change over the season," he said.
"Typically, in autumn our main climate drivers are resetting, which means they're exerting less influence on our weather patterns.
"This means we can expect our weather over the coming month or two to be driven by more local conditions, and that makes the seven-day forecast an important tool for assessing upcoming rainfall."
It is expected most areas in NSW will experience average rainfall for autumn, with no strong push towards wetter or drier than average conditions.
Kempsey has an equal likelihood of receiving above its median rainfall of 273mm between March and May.
Temperature-wise, the outlook for autumn shows both daytime and overnight temperatures are likely to be above average for most of the country.
There is a 94 per cent chance Kempsey will experience higher than average daytime temperatures throughout autumn, the median top temperature for Kempsey between March and May is 24.5 degrees.